28 September 2006

Prognosis - Gordon Brown

Gordon Brown will still be pissed off about Cherie's little outburst during his speech (assuming it really did happen - if not, he'll just be pissed off about the media) but for the party faithful (and the handful of folks actually watching the daytime TV coverage) he probably got the speech right in terms of content. The delivery was flat as a pancake, though, and there is a risk that head-to-head comparisons with the Blair and Clinton speeches have done him no favours with the general public.

I think people who say that Gordon Brown will never make it to Number 10 as he lacks the necessary 'star quality' are barking up the wrong tree. It's not at all necessary to be a brilliant media performer to be politically successful - look at George W Bush, or John Howard in Australia, for instance. My worry for Brown is more that he is just far too close to what New Labour has done so far to present himself as a new broom, or a breath of fresh air, if he takes over the leadership.

Certainly the current opinion poll evidence seems to show that Brown would not improve Labour's electability if he were to take over tomorrow, and he might even reduce it. This was not the case back in 2003, when there were rumblings that Brown was going to muster some kind of putsch for the leadership... but people seem much more inclined to lump Gordon in the same bracket as Tony now - perhaps because everything Brown has said for the last 3 years has been standard issue Blairite New Labour. The old days of the barnstorming press-all-the-right-buttons Gordon Brown conference speech - "we're best when we're Labour", etc (from 2003? Check here to find out) are over. He plays it much safer now, going for the wider audience - but there doesn't seem to be as much heart in it.

Brown is still the front runner for the leadership by a long way... but a scenario where the doubts about how well he would actually do in the hot seat grow over the next six months or so, to an extent where a Cabinet challenger could steal it in the leadership vote, is possible, although still an outside shot. The next three posts will dissect three of the other contenders in various degrees of detail - leaving just one serious challenger, whom I will probably have to gather my thoughts on over the weekend... at least it gives you guys time to read all this nonsense.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Another issue that Gordon Brown has is that it looks like he never washes his hair. He probably does, perhaps every day. But it still looks rubbish.

Anonymous said...

That is a very good point... I saw Brown up close and his hair was pretty poor quality. He has that 'black to grey' look, the natural look, which is surely preferable to Grecian 2000 or whatever, but given the fine performance of the economy under his stewardship, why can't he afford a good hairdresser?