Byelection predictions

First a disclaimer: Byelections are way overrated and rarely, if ever, have any bearing on general election results. They get more interesting if you have a minority govt - for example if the Tories hadn't managed to co-opt the Lib Dems into being spineless collaborators and Cameron was leading a minority govt then they would matter a lot more.

That said, it's probably the only electoral feedback we'll have on national politics until the AV referendum in May. So here are some predictions.

• Labour will win.
• The Lib Dems will be a long way behind - basically, for probably the first time ever, we'll see an anti Lib-Dem protest vote.
• The Tory vote will actually hold up reasonably well, but...
• ...there will be a strong UKIP showing, maybe 10% of the votes or so, which will mainly damage the Tories.

More on this in a week's time.

Reflections on the Norwich North byelection

Obviously a poor result for Labour in Alan Partridge-land - as if any of you were expecting anything else? And it's annoying to have to see TV pictures of Dave Cameron mugging to camera with yet another fresh-faced loonie Tory candidate.

However, I don't think it looks as great for the Tories as some commentators have predicted. There doesn't seem to be a huge wave of people crossing over to the Tories - they might of course be out there somewhere, and they might just not have bothered to vote this time out (turnout was only 45%) - but if this was an indicator of a Tory landslide I'd have expected to see more Tory votes. Of course, UKIP got 10% and they might go back to the Tories at the election - or will they? Telegraph blogger Ed West - a deeply sad presence on the web, with a beard to match - reckons that UKIP could be a real force if they wanted to be. I'm not at all sure that he's right, but in a way I hope he is, because if the right-wing vote were to split at the next election - something that was already happening in 2005 when Michael Howard was Tory leader - that would be a big help to Labour.

With heavy concentration (perhaps too heavy) on the Telegraph this morning, there's quite a good piece by Charles Moore, who is worried that the Tories aren't popular enough to win a general election - they are just relying on Labour being unpopular. I don't think Dave Cameron is quite the genius that Moore thinks he is - a smooth operator in the mould of Tony Blair, for sure, but any fool could be in front in the polls if he or she were leading the Tories at this juncture.

The main thing holding the Tories back is that people feel - rightly - that they haven't got much of a clue on economic policy. For sure they are ahead of Labour now when people are polled on the relative economic competence of the two parties, but then Labour have just presided over the biggest recession since 1929. But so far there has been very little coherence to Conservative economic policy - indeed very little policy, beyond a slightly more aggressive package of public expenditure cuts than Labour. George Osborne looks to me like an empty suit.

The Tories are massively helped by the crapness of Nick Clegg as Lib Dem leader - something Charles Moore rightly identifies - and also by the continuing "imitation 70s Soviet leader" stasis of Gordon Brown. Every now and then, flashes of inspiration threaten to emerge from the great man, before he thinks better of it, and offers up meaningless platitudes to the camera. It is highly unlikely that he will be toppled before the election now - if it wasn't going to happen in June, why would it happen now? And that, really, is the Tories' best shot at an overall majority.

I am actually hoping the Tories do get in because that's a prerequisite for the huge political enema that needs to be administered on the Labour party - get the awful crypto-Tories and Stalinists out of the party and start building a genuine alternative political machine. I am waiting for this project to start - and hoping for a crushing defeat, but not SO crushing that all the good candidates for the leadership get voted out. Anything else - including another 5 years of Gordon - would merely prolong the agony.

Meanwhile, back in "the old country"...

(i.e. the UK, rather than Ireland, in this particular case)... we have good news and bad news (depending on which side of the fence you sit. 

Firstly, an against-the-odds victory for Labour in the Glenrothes by-election. Big majority over the SNP. Brown understandably bigging it up - "a vote of confidence in our handling of the economic crisis", etc. And I would argue, to an extent, it is. 

But there might be a bit more going on here: there are now 2 ways to make a protest vote in a Scottish by-election. You can protest against the UK govt or against the Scottish govt, which is a minority SNP administration. There may have been some of the latter going on (although if people wanted to make a double protest vote, why did the Tories and the Lib Dems both do utterly lamely?)

Secondly, that Labour won a by-election in a safe Labour seat doesn't mean they are suddenly favourites to win a general election. Labour is still a minimum of 8 points down in the national vote. If it had been a big win in a Labour or Tory marginal, now that would have been a big story. 

Still, one senses the momentum is with Labour at the moment. Brown has been looking happy to be in the job for the first time since summer '07. He knows there is a fighting chance, and he will enjoy the fight.

The downside of this, of course, is that it reduces the amount of flak that Labour takes for many of its crappier policies, of which one of the most shit-stained is ID cards. The rather duff Jacqui Smith was at it this morning, saying that "people can't wait for the introduction of ID cards". Yep, and turkeys can't wait for Christmas either. The sad thing is, given that opinion polls show a substantial proportion of the country in favour of this crazy money-waster, she's probably telling the truth. But hey, just because there are a lot of idiots around who want to spend a great deal of money on eradicating our basic freedoms with an ineffectual (because easily forged!) measure doesn't make it right. 

There should be a referendum on this policy (it's a fair cop - I'd abide by the result.) There should be a referendum on a national DNA database (introduced in one fell swoop for everyone rather than the present policy of just taking DNA from people charged with an offence, even if eventually found innocent). Hell, there should be a referendum on a lot of things. Until then, NO2ID is our best bet - please give generously. 

The realest of turkeys

I hadn't even bothered blogging about the Glasgow East by-election because it looked like such a shoo-in for Labour that it wasn't that interesting. Or so I thought... and then the SNP went and won the damn thing.

Make no mistake, this is a turkey as real as they come for Nu Labor. The only way Gordon Brown can survive is if no-one wants to take him on in a leadership contest because he's got the Labour party and the government into such bad shape that taking over the election would be a poisoned chalice. The putative challengers will think: don't risk it now, take our chances after the election, in opposition. The problem with that strategy, of course, is that if Labour gets wiped out at the election then the next Labour leader will be in a William Hague 1997-style situation, Hardly appealing.

At the end of the day it needs someone with enough grit to step up to the plate before Christmas. In my view, the only contender who would stand even a reasonable chance of performing well in the next election would be Alan Johnson. But I don't think he actually wants to do it. Still, if John Major did the job once then it's not exactly off-limits to anybody.

The best thing for Labour would be if Gordon could somehow resign on ill health grounds, or to spend more time with his family. Or something. That would provide a fresh start without someone having to knife him in the back. But the clean handover is unlikely, and so it looks increasingly likely that he will indeed be deposed. But... by whom?

Icke on the ballot

The crushing dullness of much contemporary political debate (I was listening to Harriet Harman talking about the new Equalities Bill on the radio today and I'd love to debate the finer points of that with you, but I fell asleep) is enlivened somewhat by the list of candidates for the Haltemprice and Howden by-election. They are:

• Grace Christine Astley - Independent
• David Laurence Bishop - Church of the Militant Elvis Party
• Ronnie Carroll - Make Politicians History
• Mad Cow-Girl - The Official Monster Raving Loony Party
• David Craig - Independent
• Herbert Winford Crossman - Independent
• Tess Culnane - National Front Britain for the British
• Thomas Faithful Darwood - Independent
• David Michael Davis - Conservative
• Tony Farnon - Independent
• Eamonn "Fitzy" Fitzpatrick - Independent
• Christopher Mark Foren - Independent
• Gemma Dawn Garrett - Miss Great Britain Party
• George Hargreaves - Christian Party
• Hamish Howitt - Freedom 4 Choice
• David Icke - No party listed
• John Nicholson - Independent
• Shan Oakes - Green Party
• David Pinder - The New Party
• Joanne Robinson - English Democrats: Putting England First
• Jill Saward - Independent
• Norman Scarth - Independent
• Walter Edward Sweeney - Independent
• Christopher John Talbot - Socialist Equality Party
• John Randle Upex - Independent
• Greg Wood - Independent

Just one caught my eye - David Icke. Friends will know that ever since reading The Biggest Secret and Children of the Matrix a few years back I've maintained an interest in what the Ickester is trying to awaken us to - or defraud us with, depending on your point of view. Anyway David's site confirms that he's standing.

Unless several thousand of the people who buy Icke's books live in that particular constituency (which is possible, though unlikely) he's unlikely to get elected, but it's exciting to see him back in the news at least.

Icke's Big Brother Research Centre page (not about the TV series, sadly) is deserving of further perusal at a later date. Maybe it's time to resurrect Hal's Friday Evening Blog Review... that was a laugh.