06 January 2011

Byelection predictions

First a disclaimer: Byelections are way overrated and rarely, if ever, have any bearing on general election results. They get more interesting if you have a minority govt - for example if the Tories hadn't managed to co-opt the Lib Dems into being spineless collaborators and Cameron was leading a minority govt then they would matter a lot more.

That said, it's probably the only electoral feedback we'll have on national politics until the AV referendum in May. So here are some predictions.

  • Labour will win.
  • The Lib Dems will be a long way behind - basically, for probably the first time ever, we'll see an anti Lib-Dem protest vote.
  • The Tory vote will actually hold up reasonably well, but...
  • ...there will be a strong UKIP showing, maybe 10% of the votes or so, which will mainly damage the Tories.
More on this in a week's time.


Weaser said...

1 out of 4. Better than normal!

giroscoper said...

2 out of 4, surely...Lib Dems were a long way behind. And in a way the Tory vote held up well - if you define "Tory vote" the way Michael Gove does, i.e. to the Lib Dems where appropriate. So in fact one could say 3 out of 4 - the only thing really wide of the mark was the UKIP prediction. Not my fault if they are terminally shit!

weaser said...

(With apologies for repetition...) right prediction for the wrong byelection!