06 January 2011

Byelection predictions

First a disclaimer: Byelections are way overrated and rarely, if ever, have any bearing on general election results. They get more interesting if you have a minority govt - for example if the Tories hadn't managed to co-opt the Lib Dems into being spineless collaborators and Cameron was leading a minority govt then they would matter a lot more.

That said, it's probably the only electoral feedback we'll have on national politics until the AV referendum in May. So here are some predictions.

  • Labour will win.
  • The Lib Dems will be a long way behind - basically, for probably the first time ever, we'll see an anti Lib-Dem protest vote.
  • The Tory vote will actually hold up reasonably well, but...
  • ...there will be a strong UKIP showing, maybe 10% of the votes or so, which will mainly damage the Tories.
More on this in a week's time.
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3 comments:

Weaser said...

1 out of 4. Better than normal!

1:16 pm
T.N.T. said...

2 out of 4, surely...Lib Dems were a long way behind. And in a way the Tory vote held up well - if you define "Tory vote" the way Michael Gove does, i.e. to the Lib Dems where appropriate. So in fact one could say 3 out of 4 - the only thing really wide of the mark was the UKIP prediction. Not my fault if they are terminally shit!

11:12 pm
weaser said...

(With apologies for repetition...) right prediction for the wrong byelection!

9:13 am

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