tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14306519.post3379394138158451490..comments2023-07-15T11:16:18.809+01:00Comments on giroscope: The UK Independence Party and the reactionary majorityT.N.T.http://www.blogger.com/profile/13994761000416067940noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14306519.post-28922542257333600912013-05-06T18:08:15.267+01:002013-05-06T18:08:15.267+01:00On Miliband's radical agenda (or lack of it) I...On Miliband's radical agenda (or lack of it) I agree with you but I must say I think it's a crying shame. T.N.T.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13994761000416067940noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14306519.post-22522728752827041722013-05-06T18:07:33.963+01:002013-05-06T18:07:33.963+01:00It'll be very interesting to see what happens ...It'll be very interesting to see what happens to the Tory stance on electoral reform in the event of a serious UKIP incursion into their vote at the general election. The interesting thing about AV is that it is pretty much the least radical reform to the voting system one could imagine, and preserves the main thing which the Tories like, which is the single MP constituency link, so I'd be surprised if they could summon up any really fundamental objection t it if they felt it was really in their interest to do it. I think what was putting the Tories off in 2011 was the prospect of permanent coalition govt with the Fib Dems, and in a sense who can blame them?<br /><br />Weirder in some ways was the huge enthusiasm of the Fib Dems for AV - a system which is not their manifesto policy of proportional representation, and which they slagged off when Labour put it in the 2010 manifesto. In a way it's no surprise the public saw through all this bollocks. <br /><br />Interestingly, UKIP were enthusiastic supporters of AV (despite no real evidence that they'd benefit from it): Farage wasn't used at all by the "Yes" campaign, which in respect was a mistake (although pretty much everything about the "Yes" campaign was a mistake!)T.N.T.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13994761000416067940noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14306519.post-632581134174811432013-05-06T17:41:54.176+01:002013-05-06T17:41:54.176+01:00On conspiracies, etc., I think the kind of coup yo...On conspiracies, etc., I think the kind of coup you're thinking about is more likely to the extent that the Labour government is pursuing a radical agenda. But (i) a Miliband government is highly unlikely to be pursuing a radical agenda and (ii) if it is elected on a low poll in a low turnout election it is even less likely than it otherwise would be to be pursuing a radical agenda.<br /><br />I think one of the interesting thing about the Tories is that they aren't just a pragmatic operation, though many people think they are. Over issues of Union (with Ireland in the 19th century and with Scotland in the 21st) they tend to be quite opposed to separatism, even though analysts queue up to tell them that they would dominate politics forever if England separated from its neighbours. And the Tories kept up a principled opposition to women having the vote long after it became clear that they would be the beneficiaries of a widespread women's franchise. So it is always an interesting question as to when the Tories move on these kinds of questions. I don't think they'll be moving on voting reform for quite a while.Chris Brookehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10519945225106590571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14306519.post-68580376633625389782013-05-06T17:40:23.940+01:002013-05-06T17:40:23.940+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.Chris Brookehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10519945225106590571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14306519.post-32264067272357779002013-05-06T06:46:06.860+01:002013-05-06T06:46:06.860+01:00Fair points, Chris.
On the "reactionary maj...Fair points, Chris. <br /><br />On the "reactionary majority", I should clarify: it seems to me that the balance of public opinion is currently fairly right-wing on certain issues - immigration, and to an extent social security (although it depends a lot how the questions are framed) and left-wing on others (e.g. the bankers, taxing the rich etc). So it doesn't actually make a lot of sense to say there is a "progressive majority" or a "reactionary majority" in terms of what the public thinks across the board. However, I was really talking about the majority in terms of the official line of the parties whom votes are being cast for. I agree that Lib Dem voters aren't necessarily right-wing (although many left-wingers have stopped backing them) but the politicians they are voting for ARE right-wing - or at least they see nothing wrong in collaborating with a right-wing Tory govt. Similarly, some UKIP voters may not actually be particularly right-wing - in fact they could be left-wing on many issues - but the politicians they're voting for certainly are right wing. That's the concept I was trying to get across - somewhat ineptly!<br /><br />Call me a conspiracy theorist but I think the establishment would take steps to mobilise against a Miliband adminstration on 30% of the vote, particularly if Ed was implementing a radical agenda. Remember the plot to destabilise the Wilson govt in the mid-70s ("Spycatcher" etc?) This could be the same thing again. I'm constantly vigilant about this sort of thing. <br /><br />The thing with AV is that it would have solved the UKIP problem in one fell swoop for the Tories. Also it would have helped lock in right-wing Lib Dem votes. It's a weird thing because the Tory party has - at least since the days of Peel - been such a successful electoral vehicle because it's quite UN-conservative in many respects, operating pragmatically to ensure the best chance of being elected. Supporting AV would have been a move in that tradition, and perhaps the failure of the Tories to back AV indicates that they're nowhere near as agile a political outfit as they once were. T.N.T.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13994761000416067940noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14306519.post-30625177004015721942013-05-05T22:09:05.021+01:002013-05-05T22:09:05.021+01:00This seems to me very sensible indeed--and much mo...This seems to me very sensible indeed--and much more so that what we're getting in the papers--until we get to the final four paragraphs, where I think I disagree with pretty much everything!<br /><br />Which is to say: I don’t think there’d be any kind of ‘uprising’ or coup in the even of Miliband winning on c. 30% of the vote; while (as you know) I think analyses that depend in the notion of a ‘progressive majority’ are pretty silly, I think you’re much to quick to conclude that there’s a ‘reactionary majority’: whatever the behaviour of the party leadership and MPs, most Lib Dem voters are not ‘right-wing’ in any especially useful sense. And even if the Tories were to lose the 2015 election on a split right-wing vote, I doubt many would regret (publicly or privately) their opposition to AV. That would only happen in the event of four-party politics bedding down over the longer run—in which case Labour would probably offer to help change the electoral system, anyway, in the face of its own nervousness about the future.<br /><br />In order to prove I'm not a robot, incidentally, I have to type the word "Osborne".Chris Brookehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10519945225106590571noreply@blogger.com